The Swindler, the Vanishing Man, and the Pretty Boys

The saying that things go well about a fifth of the time is by no means limited to gambling, but is supposed to be the most fitting ratio for anything a person might get absorbed in. Succeeding twenty percent of the time gives you just about the perfect sense of achievement, doesn’t it? If you came out on top ninety percent of the time, I think you’d eventually get bored and wouldn’t want to keep on going. Perhaps you could say that a certain randomness is needed to keep things from becoming routine. I suppose it’s like this: Even if we all need a little excitement in our day-to-day lives, life would be pretty trying if every day were exciting, and so having an eventful day every one out of five or so makes for the best balance. Probability theory is fairly absolute, and it would be silly to expect any change on that front, but that’s precisely why the pleasure of achieving something with a low probability is itself so absolute. That human beings gravitate toward things with a low probability of success rather than a high one suggests that we’re not necessarily controlled by the simple desire to succeed; instead, it seems to me we seek out challenges with a low probability of success, which is to say a high level of difficulty, because overcoming them tends to bring greater joy. But if you think about it, this means that people blessed with fabulous luck, for whom success comes four out of five times and all of life is smooth sailing─that is, for whom life is impossibly good─must also find life impossibly boring. I’m pretty sure that’s not the case, but I do suspect that those people wish that now and then something wouldn’t go their way. After all, I believe there’s something in all of us that wants to go up against ridiculous odds, fail, and say, “Well, there you go.”